With the U.S inauguration officially behind us, and President Trump now in the White House, I thought I would send you a list of his major campaign promises as a recap:
· Undertake fiscal stimulus measures
· Reform the tax system
· Repatriate offshore profits
· Decrease Government regulation
· Pursue energy independence
· Transform trade policies
Quite the list in my view and since the inauguration the overall markets reacted positively assuming Trump would follow-through with his promises. But I think the market did not accurately price-in the risks, namely:
· Aging population
· Loss of jobs due to technology
· Rate increases by the Federal Reserve will make the current debt service payments difficult to meet
· An accommodative Congress that may have political views on their agenda
· An “America first” attitude and what that means for foreign relations
Therefore I wanted to send you an informative piece (Trump Policy Primer) from TD Asset Management with respect to investing in the Trump Era. The document gives you a brief breakdown on some of Trump’s expected policies and how they will impact different segments of the market, namely:
· Fixed income implications
· Equity implications
· Currency implications
· S&P 500 (U.S broader market) fundamental implications
· S&P/TSX (Canadian broader market) fundamental implications
The promise for mass fiscal stimulus should help spur economic growth (in the short term) which could ultimately drive corporate earnings. Effectively, this may help push stock markets higher. Having said that, it is always important to maintain a sense of balance whenever a new President is elected because we do not know if they will hold true to their many election promises. Bottom line, having a properly diversified portfolio is always important, but its merits become increasingly more evident during times of uncertainty.